Just a quick note on computer operating systems today. Dry you might think? How applicable to my Automotive or Manufacturing business struggling right now with high fuel costs? A lot.

It’s not too hard to get into a cocktail discussion comparing Windows Vista (or XP) to Mac or Linux and find fans in each corner. But looking at these three operating systems through the Lean Manufacturing lens reveals something interesting.

Microsoft has a product development cycle that mirrors many huge automotive corporations. A standard 5 or possibly 7 year refresh cycle - not much different than GM, Ford, or Chrysler (yeah, there are some fancy creative ways to count to say that cycle is only 3 years). Sure there are some design studio tweaks every year with trim and colors and fabrics to entice someone to upgrade, but the main architecture remains constant between major redesigns. Why? It’s hard and expensive to develop all that stuff and make tools and test it and all this activity in a huge organization.

Apple is a smaller company than Microsoft. They have found ways to launch new operating systems about every 2 to 3 years where Microsoft takes 5 to 7. What this allows is Apple can better anticipate what hardware will be available two years out - those crazy chip makers like Intel and AMD can show them what they’ve got going for Holiday Sales two years from now - because it’s right there on the bench getting tested. Meanwhile, Microsoft has to guess out 5 years. Those chip makers are guessing out that far themselves (”we think it will be round or possibly triangular this time”).

Just like Automobile manufactures have to guess what consumers will want five years from now. Like will gas prices be high or low? Guess one way and all your competitors are making huge profits in SUVs and have to answer to Wall Street hecklers or you’re stuck with a pile of Trucks that no one wants to put fuel in. You can put a nice word on it like “forecast” but in the end it’s just “guessing”.

The solution to all of this is to consider how to make your product development and company “Lean” so you don’t have to guess at all.

There is a fast mover in Linux operating systems, headed by Canonical, that is an amazing beast - an open source operating system that is consistently releasing new code with as many changes as Microsoft and Apple do in their more sedentary pace - but releasing every six months - “Ubuntu Linux” (ubuntu.com). In terms of just Linux operating systems it rocketed from obscurity to the top spots of the Linux popularity tracking lists (distrowatch.com). It’s helped get Linux on the radar of long-time Apple and Microsoft fans. And it’s increasingly becoming easier to use for the casual computer user (it’s certainly more secure and stable for its existing fan base).

The more I look at Windows, Mac OS, and Linux through the lense of Continuous Improvement in the Lean Manufacturing toolbox the more I expect Linux will vault far ahead of the other two operating systems - and quickly. Mac OS is noted for its stability, some advantage due to a small controlled set of hardware where Microsoft has to work on a lot of random hardware pieces, ease of use, “and beauty”. Windows is known for being able to play the latest games, and do some office-type work.

Ubuntu goes through four to six product generations in the time that Apple updates Mac software and a whopping ten to fourteen generations between Microsoft revisions. Ubuntu (which is pulling along all the other flavors of Linux in its wake) has really only recently entered this OS race, but that sustaining that product refresh cycle will propel it past Microsoft and Apple. Watch for continued stability, better hardware recognition, and a more beautiful operating system.

Imagine what GM, Ford, or Chrysler could do if they began structuring their operations with the flexibility to really redesign products every year - not just lipstick and trim? Or if their component suppliers could do the same? It’s hard, but mandatory for survival, that the Automotive Companies begin thinking like this.

A faster cycle from a streamlined process will take the guess-work out of building the next generation of cars and trucks.

Hard, but doable.

Cheers!

I made a comment over on “XP era ends: Will Vista step up?” (additional content added here after the **** break). Microsoft is discontinuing Windows XP pre-installed systems to force everyone to Vista (or to Mac and Linux as the trend seems to be).

Microsoft planned for Moore’s Law… right down to forecasting what people will be using “in 5-7 years” from when they started writing Vista code. They simply overshot. The reasons?

-Web-centric. Huge computing power is not needed for most web apps where many people spend their time. The other big use with Office productivity suites are really in refinement periods now - minor tweaks but not much extra need for power. So no consumer push other than the minority of gamers (that push graphics cards more than cpu’s), and fringe video or movie creation/editing. Look at the popularity of the ASUS Eee pc - it’s way underpowered for Vista, probably crawls under XP (but works well under Linux).

-Hardware Marketing Fog. The chip makers stumbled over the last few years with Moore’s law - they had to put gangs of cpu’s together to try and get back on Moore’s course rather than vastly more powerful singles. Most software has yet to be specially (re)written to use parallel processors. So hardware marketing is a confusing fog of brand terms (look at a Sunday advertising insert) trying to convince people to get a new computer. It’s confusing enough that many people give up and go to the Apple> store - since there is a very limited selection.

The fix for all this?

-Rescope Vista, make smaller incremental improvements more frequently (look at the release cycle for Ubuntu.. major improvements every six months). Don’t call them “service packs” but rather “improvement packs”.

-Slim down Vista. Find out how to make it run “more like XP” until hardware catches up again. Brand it “Speedy Vista”. Or put an easy to configure “turbo button” where a user can run with eye-candy or super fast by “downshifting to pass”. This includes refusing to allow hardware vendors (and MS itself) from packaging bloated advertising/trial software with new systems.

******

Microsoft made a mistake in overshooting hardware capabilities that would be available and that customers wanted/needed. Getting back on track will be difficult with Microsofts corporate system - they are not geared for what is going on in the industry. It’s much like the domestic US automanufacturers struggling against Toyota’s Lean Manufacturing system. Toyota was setup to build in small batches with continuous improvement. Much like Canonical Ltd does with Ubuntu Linux.

Ubuntu is launched on a six-month improvement cycle. Meanwhile, the production system at Microsoft is geared to produce a wonder every five to seven years.

When your forecasting needs to look five years out compared with six months out, you are bound to make larger errors that are more difficult to correct.

So a challenge. Figure out how to make incremental improvements in your process and your company. Think small, light, and quick. If you want some pointers, give us a call.

Cheers!